Description
Logarithmic graph analysis of estimated very long term world human population (20,000 BC to 2000 AD) illustrates three distinct phases of constant population growth rates.
Prior to 5000 BC I have labeled the Foraging phase, (the beginnings of identifiably "human" cultures has been estimated to start at about 40,000 BC). Between ~5000 BC and ~1700 AD the I've labeled the Agrarian phase. after ~1700 AD, I've labeled the Science phase. The rates of population increase progressed from almost zero in the foraging phase to a rate of increase allowing minor urbanization in the Agrarian phase to very rapid increase after 1700 in the science phase.
There are three very different dominant food creation technologies characteristic of these three phases. And these three technologies have very different labor productivities which strongly suggests that the different rates of population increase are a result of different levels of food availability.
There are two points of time on a semi logarithmic plot where the constant rate of population increase changes rapidly. They coincide with two outstanding human cultural events. The Neolithic Revolution (invention of agriculture) between the Foraging and Agrarian phases, and the scientific based Enlightenment between the Agrarian and Science phases.
These two events radically changed the labor productivity of food creation. The large changes in productivity also resulted in major shifts in food creation labor allocation. The Foraging phase had close to 100% of available labor devoted to food creation. The Agrarian phase progressed in about 7000 years from nearly 100% to 93% of total world labor devoted to food creation. The Science phase began at 92% and rapidly decreased over 225 years to less than 30% world wide, and it continues to decrease rapidly. The USA in the same 225 year period went from 85% to less than 2% of labor devoted to food creation.
Urbanized populations create little or no food. Hence the level of urbanization is another measure of food availability. I.e. it measures the portion of food created that can be used to support urban populations. The history of urbanization thus quite closely follows the amount of labor not utilized for food creation. The Foraging phase had no urbanization. The Agrarian phase progressed from near zero to about 7% urbanization. The Science phase progressed from 7% to about 60% in a short 225 years.
Population domiciles followed the progression of urbanization. 100% rural in the Foraging phase,
100 % progressed to 93% rural in the Agrarian phase, and 92% to 40% rural in the Science phase. The remainders were urban or near urban.
All human commercial needs fit in one of three categories —- food, goods, or Services. Food is the most important human need category. Goods are generally a second in importance, and Services a third.
When a human need is filled to saturation by productivity improvements and productivity continues to increase, the level of labor devoted to that need begins a rapid decrease and shifting to a less important need.
In the Science phase , labor freed up by food creation productivity increases shifted chiefly to Goods creation. When goods reached world wide saturation, labor rapidly shifted from goods to services creation. The US economy went from 85% food creation labor in 1800 to 85% services labor in 2020.
The correlation of population increase rates to these three factors. ——
a.) food creation technology :
b.) labor allocation: and
c.) urbanization:
Leads to a reasonable conclusion that food creation technology was the major driving force of basic human culture from the dawn of human cultures to the present time.
A future fourth phase — an Information phase — can be reasonably hypothesized. We seem to be currently entering the 4th phase. And It seems that food creation technology will no longer be a major driving force of cultural development. Food creation and Goods creation i